When talking about
Trump the politician, even if you're a fan of the guy, you have to
admit that a gigantic part as to why he's a viable candidate is
because he's a massive celebrity. I'm not saying that's the only
reason, although I personally believe that the same people who vote
for Trump would vote for Honey Boo Boo if hers was the only name they
recognized on a ballot. I'm just saying that him being a household
name hasn't hurt him.
Actually, he's turned out to be pretty damn good at using his
celebrity status- he makes enough headlines to stoke the disenfranchised portion of today's Republican party. A little more than seven months into his campaign, and his opponents haven't gotten close to matching the hype. (Although, to be fair, unlike another candidate, he hasn't commissioned his own rap song... yet.)
What everyone
thought was a gimmick, though, has suddenly turned out to be a serious campaign. His style of blasting uncensored, balls-out
bigotry has somehow stuck with enough people to not only gather attention, but significant political support. Since July 2015, Donald
Trump has lead in the Republican polls in Iowa
and New Hampshire (although as of now, Cruz is beginning to close the gap in Iowa.) When he makes fun of a reporter with a disability, he does so in front of tens of thousands of people.
Actors, musicians, politicians, celebrities, and
whatever occupation describes Sarah Palin have actually gone in
front of television cameras-that they knew were recording-and said
that they endorse Donald Trump. Holy shit, it's
becoming abundantly clear- some people want Donald
Trump to win the primary!
Republican primary campaigns, at least within the last two decades, have been races to the middle- contests to see who can smile, nod and quip their way to the largest demographics, while winking and nodding to the uber-active, guaranteed-to-vote extremists. Here is where the Donald should have faltered- he's currently catching a ton of criticism for his recent
stump speech at Liberty University, in which he confirmed suspicions that he doesn't actually know fuck-all about Christianity. His tax plan increases taxes on the wealthy. Actually, if you want to see the departure from the right-wing norm, ask him how he feels about universal health care- and he's still crushing the primary.
Should he win the primary, he'll switch gears. He'll probably start listening to the Christian advisers he hired in September (worst The Apprentice ever) and immediately veer towards the center, to grab as wide of an audience as he can against Bernie or Hillary, but for now, and until it actually seems to slow his campaign down, you can still expect more of the same vile, ignorant shit that comes out of this mans mouth. Why should he stop, when he's the only one saying what his base is thinking?
While other
candidates roll out slogans like “Unleash the American Dream” and
“A New American Century” (or... just their not actual first name
with an exclamation point?) Donald Trump fires off “Let's Make
America Great Again.” I'm no expert in linguistics, but doesn't supporting this man
mean endorsing the idea that America isn't great? I'm not sure, but I would suggest that the majority of the
conservative populace wouldn't wear a hat that says “America isn't
great anymore” to the Republican National Convention. Doesn't matter. Not even implying the ultimate GOP heresy is enough to derail the Trump train.
Despite what should be a classic tale of how to piss off voters until you're cast into political oblivion, he has legions of people who want him to win the Presidency. According to some polls, his approval ratings are rising. But putting his name on general election ballots certainly wouldn't help Republicans.
By every possible
indication, Donald Trump would
get curb-stomped by any
Democrat in a general
election.
If you're a Republican, this has three major consequences: The first is that your political arguments will be represented on a national stage by somebody who is absolutely terrible at articulating them. Unless the average voters political views boil down to “Fuck veterans, Mexico, Islam, and women" between now and November, or Trump walks his clown-shit crazy comments back far enough (something I don't believe he's capable of), he will lose.
If you're a Republican, this has three major consequences: The first is that your political arguments will be represented on a national stage by somebody who is absolutely terrible at articulating them. Unless the average voters political views boil down to “Fuck veterans, Mexico, Islam, and women" between now and November, or Trump walks his clown-shit crazy comments back far enough (something I don't believe he's capable of), he will lose.
The
second
is that you're losing at least another four years of the presidency. The Republican Congress under Obama openly stated that they wanted to "ensure he was a one-term President." Which probably won't work here, because of reason number three: When Trump gets destroyed in the general
election, his stink will carry
over to every single Republican candidacy for at
least the foreseeable future.
Every single Republican will have to distance themselves from Donald in ways I can't even try to predict. Right now, Donald Trump is polling heavy with the average, middle of the road conservatives. That will stop when he loses in the general election, and then there needs to be a massive change in the message of the GOP. Like Jeb Lund said, "the difference between Trumpism and the rest of the Republican party is basically ten beers." How do you possibly separate yourself from the central emotional base of your ideals? This is important- Trump is running with the Republican Cliffs-notes, and when you lose the nuances that normally buffer the nasty parts away from the public eye, you lose the entire argument. And if there's one thing that Donald (and America) hates, it's a loser.
Every single Republican will have to distance themselves from Donald in ways I can't even try to predict. Right now, Donald Trump is polling heavy with the average, middle of the road conservatives. That will stop when he loses in the general election, and then there needs to be a massive change in the message of the GOP. Like Jeb Lund said, "the difference between Trumpism and the rest of the Republican party is basically ten beers." How do you possibly separate yourself from the central emotional base of your ideals? This is important- Trump is running with the Republican Cliffs-notes, and when you lose the nuances that normally buffer the nasty parts away from the public eye, you lose the entire argument. And if there's one thing that Donald (and America) hates, it's a loser.
However, at this
point, maybe only losing the general election is the best thing the GOP can
hope for. Trump has said repeatedly that he would run as an independent if he wasn't given the nomination, which would turn any
2016 Republican candidates' brutal uphill battle into an even more
hilarious impossibility. Even then, the fracturing of the party
between the Trumps and non-Trumps would be the point in time where
we'd see the full separation between the people who endorse the
honest, outspoken craziness as opposed to the subtle hidden
craziness. After that, you might as well ask the Castro brothers
what color they'd like for the carpet in the Oval Office in eight years or so.
So
unless you're one of the
people who genuinely believes that, in spite of reason, data, and
common sense, Donald Trump can
win the presidency- who really wants
him to win the primary?
Democrats might; for
no other reason that it's a lay-up. However, I don't think anyone has enough confidence that the people who'd vote so that Trump doesn't get
into office outnumber the people who would vote to put him there.
Additionally,
this isn't just any position the man is running for-
this is the Presidential nominee of a major American
political party,
and that means something.
That's symbolically important, not just for one party, but for the
entire country. Letting this
person win the nomination means sending a God-awful
message to the rest of the world. Our arguably staunches ally is having
debates as to whether or not they'll let the man into their country.
Do we really want him
to be the voice of a faction,
just for the sake of a
political victory? Even with a win,
we implicitly acknowledging that a great number of us support the
kind of bigotry our own Constitution insists we abhor.
Perhaps I'm wrong.
Maybe Trump actually does have a reasonable plan to fix flaws in the government,
and is just taking a crazy route to get there. Or, maybe I'm in the
minority, and most people are aligned with the character he's
portraying- an unhinged, unholy blend of Ted Nugent and orange soda
that's playing this game out of genuine interest, and not complete
boredom. Perhaps we'll just get lucky, and he'll decide he's over it
and wants to go back to making millions by going bankrupt.
Sam lives and works in Austin, TX, and is a little sad that 1/4 of these articles have been about an asshole with a combover. Follow him on twitter, or give him better article ideas at swellbo@gmail.com